Global oil market continues to search for balance

10 February, 2018, 08:55 | Author: Salvatore Jensen
  • Brent Crude

Oil has been caught in the middle of two contradicting influences, the 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) cut in supply by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russian Federation, and the increase in US crude output surpassing 10 million bpd.

US crude oil production exploded to 10.25 million barrels a day last week, and virtually every forecast is for that number to remain at or above 10 million for most of the year.

Futures fell as much as 0.7 per cent in NY, falling for a fifth day, after government data showed United States crude production jumped to a record 10.25 million barrels a day last week.

For most of 2017, China's crude oil imports exceeded those of the US on a monthly basis. The EIA said last month, however, that overall November production climbed to 10.038 million barrels a day, the highest since November 1970.

Output for USA oil is poised to climb above 10 million barrels a day, which would top a record set in 1970 and cement the status of the United States as the No. 2 producer in the world.

A majority of analysts are also cautious that the recent gains may not last long as shale producers in the United States are ramping up production in the wake of rising prices while locking in prices in the derivatives market.

The level of American oil production has 40 years of records.

The EIA's weekly data came on the heels of an upwardly revised forecast for total USA production this year and next.

Following a spike in US bond yields generating fears of a potential increase in inflation and higher interest rates, the financial markets tanked on Monday.

Standard Chartered Bank says they expect global oil demand growth for 2018 to be more than 1.6 million barrels a day.

A cargo of US condensate has reached Abu Dhabi in the latest sign how much the oil market has changed in the last few years.

West Texas Intermediate for March delivery fell 45 cents to $61.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Conditions are ripe for OPEC to say enough is enough, there's no longer a need to inflate prices.

Oil prices hit a one-month low during the trading session following reports of a rise in US shale output.

Gasoline and distillate stocks were expected, by analysts, to rise and fall 200,000 barrels and 800,000 barrels, respectively. Shale players and OPEC could lose their production discipline and a strengthening U.S. economy could cause the dollar to strengthen again and dampen oil prices. During the trading session, the S&P 500 stock index .SPX fell to its lowest level since October 5.

"After the settlement yesterday, oil prices plunged with equities", said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG.



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