Oil prices dip on expectations of rising OPEC, Russian supplies

22 June, 2018, 15:59 | Author: Salvatore Jensen
  • Bloomberg’s Annemarie Hordern reports on OPEC’s upcoming meeting

Iran's representative to OPEC, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, told Bloomberg on Sunday that "Three OPEC founders are going to stop it". It's believed Saudi Arabia wants to pump more, as does Russian Federation, a key non-Opec member, but poorer Opec members would rather see prices continue to rise. It is said, though, that US and Saudi Arabia have been discussing ending the OPEC/non-OPEC pact long before this week's meeting and Saudi is going to propose what is in fact a USA -induced decision in Vienna.

Last year, OPEC members unanimously agreed on the oil price of 60 USA dollars per barrel, by cutting oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 32.5 million bpd.

The agency noted that if the 2018 and 2019 forecast annual averages materialize, they would be the highest levels of production on record, surpassing the previous record set in 1970.EIA expects that OPEC crude oil production will average 32.0 million b/d in 2018, a decrease of about 0.4 million bpd from the 2017 level. Indications from OPEC members and other large producers on the scale of potential output increases are likely to drive the market, he said.

A quota increase of that size shared among all members would not deliver a commensurate boost in production because several countries, including Venezuela where an economic crisis is slowly destroying the oil industry, are unable to raise output.

Oil prices fell further on Monday, pulled down by an expectation that producer club OPEC and its allies will increase supplies.

Zanganeh said he would leave Vienna on Friday before OPEC holds talks with non-OPEC producers the next day and added a recent rise in oil prices was mainly the fault of Washington, which imposed new sanctions on OPEC members Iran and Venezuela. But oil price should not be out of reach. Saudi Arabia's own data for May showed it increased its own output by 161,400 barrels a day.

The news of the United States asking OPEC to increase oil output by 1mb/d (million barrel per day) in the second half of 2018 and rising United States oil production has put downward pressure on prices.

"There are other countries that do not want to reduce the cuts".




Tankers waiting to load more than 24 million barrels of crude, nearly as much as state producer PDVSA shipped in April, are sitting off the Opec member's main oil port.

Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 1/32 in price to yield 2.9205 percent, from 2.924 percent late on Friday.

Ultimately, Hewson says, the 14 countries in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are likely to agree on a production increase.

They will meet in Vienna on June 22 to decide forward production policy.

The increase of 300,000 to 600,000 barrels a day - above the current OPEC+ production of about 32 million barrels a day - is a less theoretical number.

Venezuela's state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela has seen its operations mired by problems ranging from fast-declining crude production and poor refining due to a lack of equipment, to obstacles for exporting oil amid port congestion and financial sanctions.

Both countries would struggle to increase output.

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